Russia, Belarus vs Ukraine: Narrow victory for Russia + Belarus after 362 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine; the model ends in narrow victory for russia + belarus after 362 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Ukraine: Russian drone and missile attack sparks fire in Kyiv region (Euronews)
- Melania Trump hosts Russia-Ukraine meeting after Oleshky ceasefire (Al Jazeera)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Narrow victory for Russia + Belarus after 362 simulated days (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 103,003 for Russia + Belarus and 51,608 for Ukraine.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then ceasefire from day 362.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,596,982 vs 526,625.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 81%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 53% vs 75%.
- Logistics (favoured Side B): Average front-line supply efficiency: 53% vs 56%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.94.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Ukraine vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days.
- Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Ukraine: Russian drone and missile attack sparks fire in Kyiv region (Euronews)
- Melania Trump hosts Russia-Ukraine meeting after Oleshky ceasefire (Al Jazeera)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.