Poland vs Ukraine: Victory for Ukraine after 365 days
In today's run Poland attack Ukraine; the model ends in victory for ukraine after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Poland attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Victory for Ukraine after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 11,771 for Poland and 39,713 for Ukraine.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 31, then attrition phase from day 42.
Turning points:
- Day 32: Turning point: Offensive slows in the central sector. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Ukraine: supply efficiency has fallen and the air situation has become contested.
What decided it
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 51 vs 254 model units.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Poland: 38%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.73.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 64% vs 71%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 471,694 vs 448,859.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Ukraine vs Poland: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 354 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.