Russia, Belarus vs Poland, Germany, France, United Kingdom: Partial objective achieved after 365 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Germany, France, United Kingdom; the model ends in partial objective achieved after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Drone strike by Sudan paramilitary kills 41 near Ethiopian border, rights group says (BBC News)
- US Army, Kaizen Laboratories to establish common software platform for classified material (Defense News)
- Pentagon, Raytheon sign $6.3B deal to replenish US missile interceptor supply (Defense News)
- Drones and autonomous warfare: ‘One-way attack’ and reshaping ISR (Breaking Defense)
- US forces disable ship ‘attempting to run’ Iran blockade in Gulf of Oman (Al Jazeera)
Nothing in the feeds mapped onto a scenario the engine can stage, so today's run is the evergreen scenario Europe without the United States.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Germany, France, United Kingdom in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Partial objective achieved after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 122,865 for Russia + Belarus and 38,076 for Poland + Germany + France +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then contested front from day 4, then attrition phase from day 13, then stalemate from day 27, then end state from day 365.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland + Germany + France +: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 83,123.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,288,292 vs 168,753.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 64%.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 89% vs 64%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.76.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Poland: the model ended that one in partial objective achieved after 365 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Drone strike by Sudan paramilitary kills 41 near Ethiopian border, rights group says (BBC News)
- US Army, Kaizen Laboratories to establish common software platform for classified material (Defense News)
- Pentagon, Raytheon sign $6.3B deal to replenish US missile interceptor supply (Defense News)
- Drones and autonomous warfare: ‘One-way attack’ and reshaping ISR (Breaking Defense)
- US forces disable ship ‘attempting to run’ Iran blockade in Gulf of Oman (Al Jazeera)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.