Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇷🇸 Serbia vs 🇲🇰 North MacedoniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Serbia attacked North Macedonia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Serbia keeps 3.1 times as many soldiers under arms. Serbia has tanks and North Macedonia has none. Serbia has combat aircraft and North Macedonia has none. Serbia spends 5.0 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

SerbiaNorth Macedonia
25,000Active soldiers8,000
50,000Reservists5,000
230Tanks0
300Artillery50
25Combat aircraft0
50Helicopters10
$1.5bnDefence budget$0.3bn
6.6mPopulation1.8m

What the war cost

Serbia
attacked
2,380
soldiers killed or wounded
14
tanks destroyed
15
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
34%
support at home, at the end
North Macedonia
defended
444
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
35%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Serbia
Reservists mobilised: 128,329 vs 4,245.
02
Deployed combat power helped Serbia
Average deployed combat power: 9 vs 2 model units.
03
Air situation helped Serbia
Average share of air control for Serbia: 76%.
04
Logistics helped North Macedonia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 36% vs 77%.
05
Political cohesion helped Serbia
Average cohesion: 47% vs 44%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇬🇷 Greece vs 🇲🇰 North Macedonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 30 days
🇦🇱 Albania vs 🇲🇰 North Macedonia
Defender holds after 227 days
🇷🇸 Serbia vs 🇭🇷 Croatia
Defender holds after 258 days
🇧🇬 Bulgaria vs 🇲🇰 North Macedonia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 288 days
🇧🇬 Bulgaria vs 🇷🇸 Serbia
Defender holds after 190 days
🇷🇸 Serbia vs 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herz.
Defender holds after 318 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Serbia and North Macedonia ended with: Defender holds (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,380 (Serbia) and 444 (North Macedonia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.