Germany vs Poland: Narrow victory for Germany after 337 days
In today's run Germany attack Poland; the model ends in narrow victory for germany after 337 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Germany attack Poland in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Narrow victory for Germany after 337 simulated days (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 22,235 for Germany and 8,831 for Poland.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then ceasefire from day 337.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 424,884 vs 27,355.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 96% vs 41%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 56% vs 86%.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Germany: 61%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 45 vs 51 model units.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Germany: the model ended that one in defender holds after 360 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.