Germany vs Ukraine, Poland: Defender holds after 361 days
In today's run Germany attack Ukraine, Poland; the model ends in defender holds after 361 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Germany to set up first drone regiment next year, modeled after Ukraine war lessons (Defense News)
- Germany pledges $1.1B military aid package to Ukraine flush with drone interceptors (Breaking Defense)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Germany attack Ukraine, Poland in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Defender holds after 361 simulated days (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 11,881 for Germany and 34,092 for Ukraine + Poland.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 361.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 53 vs 293 model units.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 79% vs 38%.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Germany: 37%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 57% vs 77%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.90.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Germany: the model ended that one in defender holds after 360 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Germany to set up first drone regiment next year, modeled after Ukraine war lessons (Defense News)
- Germany pledges $1.1B military aid package to Ukraine flush with drone interceptors (Breaking Defense)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.