Azerbaijan vs Armenia: Defender holds after 365 days
In today's run Azerbaijan attack Armenia; the model ends in defender holds after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Urban warfare: Next Falcon Peak exercise to take counter-drone tech to the streets (Breaking Defense)
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey: Could the Mecca defense pact become a game changer in the war against the Houthis in Yemen? (DW)
- Army issues just under $100M in application awards for NGC2 to 9 companies (Breaking Defense)
- Children killed while they slept as Russian missile kills 19 in block of flats (BBC News · Europe)
- US stocks slide as oil prices fluctuate over renewed Iran war fears (Al Jazeera)
Nothing in the feeds mapped onto a scenario the engine can stage, so today's run is the evergreen scenario Caucasus conflict.
The scenario we ran
Azerbaijan attack Armenia in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Defender holds after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 4,272 for Azerbaijan and 5,044 for Armenia.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 365.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Logistics (favoured Side B): Average front-line supply efficiency: 13% vs 45%.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Azerbaijan: 65%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 20 vs 12 model units.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 259,293 vs 153,378.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side A): Average cohesion: 58% vs 43%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Azerbaijan vs Armenia: the model ended that one in defender holds after 365 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Urban warfare: Next Falcon Peak exercise to take counter-drone tech to the streets (Breaking Defense)
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey: Could the Mecca defense pact become a game changer in the war against the Houthis in Yemen? (DW)
- Army issues just under $100M in application awards for NGC2 to 9 companies (Breaking Defense)
- Children killed while they slept as Russian missile kills 19 in block of flats (BBC News · Europe)
- US stocks slide as oil prices fluctuate over renewed Iran war fears (Al Jazeera)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.