Russia, Belarus vs United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania: Defender holds after 365 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania; the model ends in defender holds after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- US to build new military bases in Greenland as deal seeks to end tensions between Nato allies - as it happened (The Guardian · World)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States participates, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Defender holds after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 73,812 for Russia + Belarus and 46,707 for United States + Poland + Estonia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 365.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Poland + Estonia +: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 977,561.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 28%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,407,510 vs 1,015,527.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 290 vs 461 model units.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.76.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- US to build new military bases in Greenland as deal seeks to end tensions between Nato allies - as it happened (The Guardian · World)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.