Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇱🇺 LuxembourgMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Germany attacked Luxembourg today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 5 days.

How the two militaries compare

Germany keeps 182 times as many soldiers under arms. Germany has tanks and Luxembourg has none. Germany has combat aircraft and Luxembourg has none. Germany spends 150 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

GermanyLuxembourg
182,000Active soldiers1,000
35,000Reservists0
300Tanks0
150Artillery5
220Combat aircraft0
250Helicopters3
$90.0bnDefence budget$0.6bn
84.0mPopulation0.7m

What the war cost

Germany
attacked
95
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
1
aircraft lost
+1
areas of land gained
74%
support at home, at the end
Luxembourg
defended
1
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−1
areas of land lost
59%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Germany
Reservists mobilised: 6,766 vs 0.
02
Deployed combat power helped Germany
Average deployed combat power: 31 vs 1 model units.
03
Air situation helped Germany
Average share of air control for Germany: 91%.
04
Political cohesion helped Germany
Average cohesion: 74% vs 69%.
05
Logistics helped Germany
Average front-line supply efficiency: 84% vs 82%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇧🇪 Belgium
Ceasefire, front frozen after 316 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇨🇿 Czechia
Side A achieves its objectives after 176 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇩🇰 Denmark
Side A achieves its objectives after 96 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇦🇹 Austria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 213 days
🇧🇪 Belgium vs 🇱🇺 Luxembourg
Side A achieves its objectives after 125 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Defender holds after 365 days
All matchups →
After 5 simulated days the conflict between Germany and Luxembourg ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 95 (Germany) and 1 (Luxembourg). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.